Thursday, October 11, 2007

Couldn't Have Said It Better Myself

California Association of Realtor chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young was quoted recently as saying, "“We’ve had a fundamental change in the mindset of the buyer,” she says. “There is no reason (for a buyer) to act.”

I couldn't agree more. Of course, I was writing about that very topic on this blog back in February.

Would seem Ms. Appleton-Young's trend indicators seem to be lagging mine by about eight months.

So, in case you're wondering, Ms. Appleton-Young, the next eight months are going to be epically bad. The vast majority of buyers lack the interest, means or both to buy a home. Smart buyers are going to continue to sit on the sidelines at least through 2008. They are too smart to be interested in buying. Those buyers that aren't so smart are going to try and buy, but many, many of them will not be able to qualify. They will not have the means to buy.

The implications are that: volumes are going to slow to a trickle, real prices are going to drop much further, seasonally-adjusted inventories are going to be much higher, the numbers of defaults, foreclosures are REOs will all rise, possibly dramatically, come summer.

No "bounce", no "inverted year", no "firming." Just a good old-fashioned, worsening buyer and financier-led real estate slump. And you can quote me on that.

Viva los Osos!


Anonymous said...

Ya, Well and I had you beat by 9 - months as well. Buut you have not shown any tangable data to validate your own assumptions... I mean hard facts and/or basis.

When will you do that?

HB Bear said...

Check out my most-recent post, chuck-full of basis and fact. Can I ask where your blog is?

You knew that market was doomed before me? Good for you! You must be very clever.

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