Contest: Predict the Day the OC Median Drops Below $500K

I'd like to have some fun and encourage some discussion here on the blog; so I am going to sponsor the first-ever OC Prudent Bears Real Estate Prediction contest. Here are the rules.

Readers of the blog will try and predict the day that the median price of the Orange County All Homes Median Price as reported by DataQuick will fall below $500,000.

1. Readers are to add a comment to this post that includes the date that he predicts the median will drop below 500K and their nickname as they are generally known around the RE blogosphere. (See example prediction in Comments section)


2. The reader guessing closest to the actual crossover date (actual event date, not reporting date) will be considered the winner.


3. If two or more readers guess the correct day, the reader who entered his guess first/earlier will be considered the winner.


4. Readers can revise their guess as many times as they like, but only a reader's last and latest prediction will be considered for purposes of determining if he is a winner.


5. Winner will be announced as soon as practical following the $500K median crossover date.

For the hell of it, I'll throw in a Starbucks gift card for the first place winner. If anyone else has a "junk drawer" item they'd like to throw into for a prize, let me know.

It's Funny Because It's True

Another classic posted by Trooper on IHB.

Oh, and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, feels as thought the "worst is just beginning" for housing which, depending on your perspective may or may not be more funny than the comic above:

Bernanke Bearish on Economy

Helicopter Ben seems more than a bit dour on the prospects for the economy:

"The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, and the downside risks to growth have increased," Bernanke said. "To date, the largest economic effects of the financial turmoil appear to have been on the housing market, which, as you know, has deteriorated significantly over the past two years or so." Bernanke also said that the "virtual shutdown" of the market for subprime mortgages — given to people with blemished credit histories or low incomes — and a reluctance by skittish lenders to make "jumbo" home loans exceeding $417,000 have aggravated problems in the housing market.

Unsold homes have piled up and foreclosures have climbed to record highs.

"Further cuts in homebuilding and in related activities are likely," Bernanke cautioned.

Read the full story here....

S&P: LA/OC Home Prices Set to Drop 17% in 2008

If there are small children or LA/OC homeowners in the room, you might want to have them leave before you have a close look at this chart:

I think we've covered the methodology for interpreting this kind of chart frequently enough that we can dispense with any explanation. The net-net is that the S&P futures market is predicting that real estate prices are set to drop in the an additional 16-17% in 2008 in the LA/OC market.

With the current median selling price at just under $600,000 for the median existent SFDU in OC, that means that we can expect to see prices drop an additional $100,000 for a median EOY 2008 price of just under a half-million dollars.

I will write more on this topic later, including the fact that these S&P number align very-closely with reader-poll-derived predictions from this blog, but I have to head out to Costco and pick up a bottle of Dom for me and Mrs. HB Bear. We have some celebrating to do.

Viva Los Friggin' Osos!

A Little Fed Humor for the Weekend

A great find from our friends at the Irvine Housing Blog.

Just hilarious.

Shiller: Current Housing Bust Comprable to The Great Depression

If you are buying or selling a home, the video below should be considered mandatory viewing.