Friday, February 22, 2008

Contest: Predict the Day the OC Median Drops Below $500K

I'd like to have some fun and encourage some discussion here on the blog; so I am going to sponsor the first-ever OC Prudent Bears Real Estate Prediction contest. Here are the rules.

Readers of the blog will try and predict the day that the median price of the Orange County All Homes Median Price as reported by DataQuick will fall below $500,000.

  1. Readers are to add a comment to this post that includes the date that he predicts the median will drop below 500K and their nickname as they are generally known around the RE blogosphere. (See example prediction in Comments section)

  2. The reader guessing closest to the actual crossover date (actual event date, not reporting date) will be considered the winner.

  3. If two or more readers guess the correct day, the reader who entered his guess first/earlier will be considered the winner.

  4. Readers can revise their guess as many times as they like, but only a reader's last and latest prediction will be considered for purposes of determining if he is a winner.

  5. Winner will be announced as soon as practical following the $500K median crossover date.

For the hell of it, I'll throw in a Starbucks gift card for the first place winner. If anyone else has a "junk drawer" item they'd like to throw into for a prize, let me know.


HB Bear said...

Example Prediction:

Nick: HB Bear
Date under 500K: April 22, 2008.

Anonymous said...

March 28, 2008, Coconutz!

Anonymous said...

June 23rd 2008
I don't post often enough to get a name but here is my guess anyway

Markus Arelius said...

May 1, 2008, of course.

May day.

I think it's appropriate to be May Day because the "Mayday" distress signal actualy comes from the French "venez m'aider" meaning 'come to my aid'/"come [to] help me!"

Unfortunately, given strapped budgets and median incomes so out of synch with even a $495,000 sf home price expectation, what possible help will come to distressed homedebtors?

HB Bear said...

So far we've come close, even touching the $500,000 makr a few weeks back, but it just didn't break through.

This is taking a bit longer than we would have thought.

Dataquick/RE conspiracy? Market fact?

internationalrealestate said...

interesting real estate blog and I will do some research to learn more – keep the good work

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