Sunday, July 22, 2007

How Many Can You Find?

Fourteen for sale signs (and two others)at the corner of Saybrook and Heil last weekend. Seems though HB's Harbor area is getting a little, if you will forgive the pun, liquid.

My guess is that this intersection has got to have the highest concentrations of for sale signs in the county, but I bet there are some that have nearly as many or maybe more.

If you find an intersection, stretch of road or a street corner with a lot of for sale signs, send it to hbbear at ocpredicts dot com and I'll post it on the site.


Eric J. Fox said...

Are you familiar with the Brightwater development in the Bolsa Chica area out there? Do you think that will be impacted as well by the housing slowdown?

Anonymous said...

What won't be impacted...

HB Bear said...

I live very close to Brightwater and I have to be honest I don't know that much about it. But I think the prior poster's comment is dead on, "What won't be impacted?"

I know that homes in the tract are priced in the low millions and that nearly all of the signs you see in my picture in the post are for houses in that same area and in that price range. So it would seem as though there may be some inventory on hand after the same demographic as Brightwater which is not good for them.

I haven't looked at the inventory turn rates by price segment in a while, but my sense is that while houses in the $1M+ range are certainly selling, they are selling at a slow pace. Also not good news.

On the plus side for BW, the area where they've decided to build is a nice piece of Earth. I am also sure the view of the Pacific from the model homes is also very striking. So there's some very serious QOL consideration that will help BW.

All of that aside, prices in OC have already started falling. Even the most avid bull apologist would agree that prices, on the whole, are alredy down roughly 10% from the peak. I, for one, don't think we've even begun to see the full-extent of the price down turn. We could easily see another 15% price decline and; maybe another 20-25% under the right circumstances.

So my advice to BW: Sell all you can as fast as you can. You will be glad you did.

Louisville Real Estate said...

I actually counted 17 total, maybe I should go get my reading glasses :)

Eric J. Fox said...

I agree with everything said here in these comments. If anything, things have gotten much worse since I first posted here in July.

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